In the second week of February, prices in most major European electricity markets increased and weekly averages exceeded 140 €/MWh. On Monday, 10 February, TTF gas futures reached their highest value since the beginning of February 2023, exceeding 58 €/MWh. The French market once again broke the PV production record for a day in February. Says AleaSoft Energy Forecasting in its weekly report.
In the second week of February, average prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. Prices continued to trend upwards in the early days of the week, but fell over the weekend, limiting the increase in weekly averages. This is explained by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
In the week of February 10, weekly averages were above €140/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic, Portuguese and Spanish markets, whose averages were €88.82/MWh, €117.50/MWh and €117.64/MWh respectively.
The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, equal to €159.40/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed, prices ranged from €140.73/MWh in the French market to €149.72/MWh in the Belgian market.
The Nordic market reached a price of €50.69/MWh on February 11, which was the lowest price of the week in the analyzed markets. Daily prices exceeded €170/MWh in some sessions in the second week of February in the German, Italian and Dutch markets. The German market recorded the highest price of the week, €179.14/MWh, on Friday, February 14.
“The EPEX SPOT market in France recorded the smallest increase, at 1.9%, while the Nord Pool market in the Nordics recorded the highest percentage increase in prices, at 72%. In the other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 3.6% in the IPEX market in Italy and 8.6% in the EPEX SPOT market in the Netherlands,” the Spanish consultancy said.
Motivations
In the week of February 10, declining solar and wind generation, as well as increased demand in some markets, such as the UK N2EX market and the German, Belgian and Dutch markets, led to higher prices in the European electricity market, also as a function of gas prices.
“As for TTF gas futures on the ICE market for FrontMonth, they started the week continuing the upward trend of the previous week. On Monday, February 10, these futures reached their maximum weekly settlement price, €58.04/MWh. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this is the highest price since February 7, 2023. In the rest of the sessions of the second week of February, prices decreased: on Friday, February 14, these futures recorded their minimum weekly settlement price, €50.68/MWh”.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting price forecasts indicate that, in the third week of February, prices will decrease in European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in solar power generation and decreasing demand in most markets.
Photovoltaic and wind production
Solar PV production declined in major European electricity markets in the week of February 10 compared to the previous week. The downward trend followed two consecutive weeks of increases in weekly solar PV production. The German and Portuguese markets saw the largest production declines, down 38% and 17%, respectively. The Spanish market saw the smallest decline, down 0.4%.
In the week of February 17, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, solar photovoltaic energy production will increase in Spain, Germany and Italy, reversing the downward trend of the previous week.
Weekly wind energy production fell in most major European markets during the week of February 10, continuing the previous week’s downward trend. The French market saw the largest decline, down 23%, while wind energy production in Italy and Germany fell by 13% and 10%, respectively.
Electricity demand
In the week of February 10, the weekly evolution of electricity demand showed a mixed trend in the main European electricity markets. Great Britain led the list of markets where demand increased (+5.2%), while demand decreased in the Portuguese and Italian markets, by 2.2% and 0.7% respectively.
“Demand changes during the second week of February are correlated with average temperature changes. In countries where demand increased, average temperatures decreased by between 0.3°C and 2.2°C. In countries where demand decreased, average temperatures increased by between 0.9°C and 2.8°C,” AleaSoft Energy Forecasting said.
For the week of February 17, the Spanish consultancy forecasts that demand will decrease in most major European markets, with the exception of Portugal, where demand will increase.
